Scenarioplanning

Keynote & interview Eurapco Insurance

<op 26-09-2013 gaf ik keynote op het Eurapco congres waar top EU verzekeraars expertise delen.>

We live in a world of rapid technological change. Keynote speaker and IT expert Arjen Kamphuis discusses the implications for the insurance industry and its customers, and what measures can be taken to ensure the best possible customer experience. The objective was to raise awareness of the rapid pace of socio-technical development today and what fundamental effects this will have on the insurance industry. Changes in customer behaviour and expectations will have an impact on customer satisfaction with our companies’ claims handling.

Future shock – are we prepared for change? Some of the topics discussed in the keynote

  • What if tomorrow’s world looks really different? The basic rules of our business can change at incredible speed because of changes in technology, national/EU/ international policies, environmental threats and other external factors. New technology can overtake existing business models, and even make them irrelevant. The insurance industry faces the challenge of combining the need to be stable, secure and reliable with being dynamic, fast and responsive.
  • Cyber security needs to be taken care of, both within companies and between companies and their customers. Privacy issues are of great importance for insurance companies. For instance, it would be damaging for the image of a stable, secure and reliable insurance company if it were to be revealed that all customer data had been fully exposed by hackers or the NSA.
  • Today, all large service companies need to balance industrialised processes with the human touch. As a customer, you do not want to be exposed to the internal processes of your service provider. The customer just wants to receive service in an uncomplicated way. Changes in customer behaviour and expectations will have an impact on customer satisfaction with our companies’ claims handling.
  • Our companies’ brands face increasing danger in a fast-paced world of social media. Our customers rely more on the experience of others than on the promises of the companies. Through social media, good and especially bad experiences can be shared easily and quickly. We can join the conversation about our brand, but not control it.
  • A fast-changing world offers opportunities and threats for your business and your position in the market. Are you ready to adapt to changes in customer expectations? Is your organisation positioned to deal proactively with change, or could you be caught off guard? Do you have a plan for what to do if an improbable case scenario does occur? By carrying out regular scenario planning, you can at least have contingency plans for different case scenarios.
In your keynote speech, you mentioned that it’s very hard for anyone inside the insurance industry to see the world the way a customer, or other outsider, sees it. Can you, as an outsider, give us some tips about what is needed to achieve excellence from a customer’s perspective?

Futureshock - What's it for? Understanding systems and policies

Just did the latest version of my 'Futureshock' talk (update from 2005 / 2009) at OHM2013. The central new insight is that exponential change does not only work 'up' (Moore's law, Kurzweil's law of accelerating returns) but also the other way: exponential out of control financial systems and military-industrial-security-complexes causing exponential depletion of critical resources. All of this is very bad but the exponential climate disaster is now rapidly approaching a level that could end up killing more people that all the wars ever (and perhaps all of us). Welcome to the age of consequences where 'crisis' will be the new normal.

Just as in 2005/2009 I to give an overview of exponentially developing technologies and their implications (for details see the earlier versions of the talk linked above). But we really need to discuss some bad news about exponentially growing problems of resource scarcity, environmental degradation and the policy non-responses of our governments so far. A lot of activism against things like 'The War on Terror' or the various other ways our governments have lots their democratic ways seem to be working from the assumption that most of the problems are just a misunderstanding. And if we can just explain the facts to these, not so smart, but esssentially well meaning people in Brussels and Washington everything will be OK. This model of reality is good for getting funded as an NGO and getting invited to talk to aforementioned well-meaning people. It is not good for actually understanding and influencing what is going on (firstly because it ignores the fact that politicians in Brussels and Washington are really not in charge). Lets at least consider the idea that these 'crazy' policies are not crazy at all but are actually working perfectly. That is for the actual goals, just not the officially stated ones.

Let's talk. But let our talking be based on a harsh assesment of where we really are, not some politically convienent pretense of where we should be or would like to be.

Slides here in PDF and PPT CC-licenced, free for non-commercial use.

Club of Amsterdam, The Future of the Future

The Future of the future; Utopia versus The End Of The World As We Know It Thursday, November 3, 2011
Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15
Location: Volkskrantgebouw, Wibautstraat 150, 1091 GR Amsterdam [former building of the Volkskrant]
The conference language is English.

"The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be."  -- Paul Valery, French poet

The Future of the Future is an examination of the various future vision as portrayed by futurists, academics and scenario thinkers.

Scenario's retail & vastgoed

Samen met Corio en Kordaat in de Ruimte heeft Gendo de afgelopen maanden gewerkt aan toekomstscenario's voor de retailsector met focus op ontwikkeling en gebruik van vastgoed. Op het Retailforum van PropertyNL in Amsterdam presenteerden wij op 17 mei onze visie.

De presentatieslides staan hier. Het volledige artikel hier.

The Singularity - Fantasy, threat or opportunity?

On may 19th 2011 the Club of Amsterdam will host The Future of the Singularity.

The technological singularity is an interesting concept from 1993 by mathematician Venor Vinge. Vinge describes the consequences of smarter-than-human systems (computers, improved humans or symbiotic human-machine systems) as leading to an infinite acceleration of intelligence-improvement.

It goes like this: "what would a smarter-than-human artificial intelligence do? It might play the stockmarket or be the worlds greatest artist, politician or general. But it might also become the worlds smartest computer-science researcher working on improving artificial intelligence, making a better version of itself. Rinse and repeat and interesting stuff starts to happen. Computer systems have been doubling performance every 18 months under the limited guidance of static human intelligence for over a century. With self improvement they could perhaps double in a much, much shorter time-spans. Think 17 minutes. Or less.

The implications of this idea are profound. It has the potential to make most of our problems today irrelevant (material scarcity and mortality might turn out to be easily solvable problems). It may also destroy our entire solar system. But just as with nuclear fusion there is also the possibility that it just won't happen in the forseeable future. We must guard against passivity among smart people who stop solving problems while they are waiting for 'the rapture of the nerds'.

In earlier articles and presentations I also discussed some of these concepts.

Futureshock presentation at HAR2009

For over a million years we lived as hunter-gatherers in small family groups, for thousands of years we lived as farmers in small villages, for 200 years we lived in cities and built industry. Now we live globally in a world that is changing faster every day than ever before through new ideas and technologies.

Sickness and mortality? Scarcity of material goods? Humans as the most intelligent beings? How very 20th century!

Our history has not prepared us for these changes, Our cultures, ideologies and religions provide no answers to many of the new questions we are faced with. Trying to impose old world views or ways of doing things on a new world is a recipe for failure, whether you are a company, government or individual.

For businesses the challenge will be to provide valuable products in a world where many things that were expensive in the recent past have quickly become very cheap or essentially free. Governments will struggle to remain relevant in a world that moves much faster than they can and where geographical location is becoming less and less important for the individual citizens' identity, income and social network.

All of us will be challenged to rediscover what being human means in a world that is constantly changed by new technologies that we cannot really control. Do we try to stop these changes or can we adapt to them? What are some of the risks we face if we use all these new technologies? What are the rewards we might miss out on if we decide to not use them?

Slides are here in ODF and PDF (CC-licenced, free for non-commercial use) 

This type of presentation is part of our scenarioplanning services. Other visual examples in Dutch are this TV appearance in 2005, a short film we made for one of our finance clients in the summer of 2008 and another film we helped make about the future of culture and knowledge.

Interview De Status

Met Dr. Fred Krautwurst van het blad van ondernemers netwerk 'de status' in gesprek over de scenarioplannings werkzaamheden van Gendo. Dit was een voorproefje voor de netwerkbijeenkomst van 15 mei a.s. De gebruikte plaatjes staan hier.

 

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Did you know?

No? Than maybe you should have a chat with the scenarioplanners at Gendo.........

Technology is moving at an ever increasing rate of development, and just a few years from now, we'll be exponentially more informed and equipped than we were in all of human history.

De toekomst van informatie en kennis

In opdracht van stichting Digitaal Erfgoed Nederland werkte Gendo mee aan een film over digitaal erfgoed in 2035. Deze film is op de DEN conferentie getoond om het lange-termijn denken in de sector aan te wakkeren. Hieronder de film en het door ons geschetste toekomstscenario.

Technologie en economische groei

Voor een van onze bancaire klanten hebben wij deze film gemaakt die gebruikt wordt als discussie aanjager bij brainstormsessies die de bank met haar klanten heeft. Het is een zeer verkorte weergave van het soort presentaties die wij regelmatig verzorgen in allerlei sectoren waarbij in dit geval speciale aandacht is voor de relatie tussen technologie en economische groei.

De film is opgenomen in en rond London samen met White Dolphin Films.

Futureshock presentation at What the Hack

My presentation on the impact of emerging technologies at What the Hack (august 2005):